机构预计楼市下行趋势将在2026年见底

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that China's GDP growth rate is expected to reach 4.7% in 2026, with a shift in the economic growth structure towards increased domestic demand and a reduced role of exports compared to 2025 [1][2] - The People's Bank of China is anticipated to implement two rate cuts of 10 basis points each in 2026 to support domestic demand, likely occurring in the first and second quarters [1] - Infrastructure investment is expected to rebound in the first quarter of 2026, despite previous constraints due to local government liquidity issues, with a long-term focus shifting from traditional transportation to new infrastructure such as energy, 5G, and data centers [1] Group 2 - China's export performance has exceeded expectations this year, primarily driven by a global recovery in electronic products and strong export growth to regions outside the U.S. [2] - The retail sales growth rate of social consumer goods in China has been around 4% since 2025, supported by government subsidy programs for major items, although recent months have seen a slowdown due to high base effects from the previous year [2] - The real estate market is expected to bottom out in 2026, with first-tier cities likely to see a recovery in housing prices first, which will gradually extend to second and third-tier cities [2]