把握“成长+价值”双主线，兴业证券最新研判

Core Viewpoint - The investment strategy for 2026 emphasizes "growth momentum and value reconstruction dividends" in both the Hong Kong and A-share markets, with a focus on structural opportunities and long-term development while downplaying short-term economic fluctuations [2][3]. Group 1: Hong Kong Market Insights - The chief strategist believes that patience and a steady approach are essential for Hong Kong investments in 2026, with excess returns expected from the AI wave and a favorable macroeconomic environment due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3]. - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 includes an expected improvement in nominal GDP growth and moderate inflation recovery, indicating that the Chinese economy will present structural opportunities for the stock market [3][4]. - Key investment opportunities identified include sectors benefiting from the AI wave, military technology, energy technology, and new consumption driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" [4]. Group 2: A-share Market Insights - The A-share market is expected to benefit from limited negative external shocks, a global AI industry trend, and a favorable liquidity environment, which will support market performance in 2026 [5]. - Internal factors such as the recovery of nominal GDP growth and price increases are anticipated to improve corporate earnings, which are seen as a major highlight for the market [5]. - The shift in industry performance from a "淘汰赛" (elimination race) to a "竞速赛" (speed race) is expected as more sectors enter a recovery phase, with a focus on high-growth industries [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Themes and Strategies - Key investment themes for 2026 include focusing on industries aligned with trends in AI, new energy, military, and innovative pharmaceuticals, as well as sectors benefiting from price recovery and global competitiveness [6]. - The low interest rate environment is expected to enhance the strategic value of high-yield assets such as insurance, banking, and energy [4]. - The selection of individual stocks may shift from stable dividend payers to those with strong free cash flow as overall corporate earnings become more elastic [6].