直线跳水！美联储大消息！

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected rise in the U.S. unemployment rate to 4.6% in November, the highest since September 2021, may be a key factor prompting the Federal Reserve to consider further interest rate cuts [3][5][12]. Group 1: Employment Data - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November, surpassing the expected increase of 50,000 [5]. - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, higher than the expected 4.5% and up from 4.4% in September [5][12]. - The October employment figures were significantly revised down, showing a decrease of 105,000 jobs, much worse than the anticipated decline of 25,000 [5][6]. Group 2: Wage and Retail Sales Data - Average hourly earnings in November grew by 3.5% year-over-year, marking the lowest growth rate since May 2021 [7]. - Retail sales in October remained flat month-over-month, slightly below the expected growth of 0.1%, indicating signs of economic slowdown [7][8]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January rose to 26.6%, up from 22% prior to the data [8][9]. - The U.S. dollar index fell sharply, dropping below 98 for the first time since October 6, with a minimum of 97.8669 during the day [11]. - Major U.S. stock indices opened lower but saw a rebound, with the Nasdaq gaining 0.23% and large tech stocks generally rising [11]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - Economists suggest that the slowdown in the labor market, combined with high inflation due to tariffs, poses potential risks to consumer spending [8]. - The market anticipates two rate cuts by 2026, with a total easing of 58 basis points expected next year [9][12]. - The Federal Reserve is likely to adopt a cautious approach in interpreting future data due to incomplete data collection for October and November [12].