如何开展长寿风险管理？业内人士这样说……

Core Viewpoint - Longevity is a significant indicator of social progress and development, but managing and diversifying longevity risks presents new challenges for society [2]. Group 1: Longevity Risk Definition and Challenges - Longevity risk refers to the risk of individuals or groups living longer than expected, leading to increased long-term payment obligations for pension and insurance institutions, thereby causing financial pressure [2]. - China has entered a moderately aging society, with the elderly population (aged 60 and above) reaching 310 million by the end of 2024, accounting for 22.0% of the total population [2]. - The commercial annuity insurance market, as a tool for hedging longevity risk, faces significant challenges due to the accelerated aging trend and the combined impact of longevity risk and interest rate changes [2]. Group 2: Long-term Insurance Business Challenges - The long-term insurance business is a core functional area for the insurance industry in addressing population aging, but it faces major challenges such as interest rate risk in a low-interest environment [3]. - The insurance industry must adopt a multi-faceted approach to manage risks associated with mortality, expense, and interest rate differentials, including precise pricing and risk management [3]. Group 3: International Practices in Longevity Risk Management - Mature markets like the UK are actively exploring pension de-risking solutions, with an expected market risk transfer transaction volume of £70 billion by 2025, including £50 billion in longevity co-insurance transactions [4]. - The concept of longevity risk swaps, where direct insurers transfer longevity risk to reinsurers, has been practiced in Europe since the mid-2000s [5]. Group 4: Local Exploration of Longevity Risk Diversification - In China, the exploration of financial tools for transferring longevity risk faces challenges such as data availability, regulatory environment, and market structure [7]. - Recommendations for improving longevity risk transfer in China include establishing a mortality index, conducting pilot projects under regulatory sandboxes, and developing simpler products to ease pricing and execution difficulties [7]. Group 5: Academic and Market Developments - The rapid aging process in China is pushing longevity risk to the forefront of actuarial considerations, with new models being developed to predict mortality improvements [8]. - The Shanghai International Reinsurance Registration Center is working on building a longevity risk index to support reinsurance transactions and product innovation [8].