白银再创新高，年内大涨超125%成黑马

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has reached a historic moment with significant price increases in both domestic and international markets, driven by strong demand and speculative sentiment [1][4]. Market Performance - On December 17, the main silver futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange peaked at 15,477 yuan per kilogram, marking a rise of over 4% and setting a new record since its listing [1]. - In the international market, COMEX silver rose over 4%, reaching a peak of $66.27 per ounce, while London silver also saw gains, hitting $66.068 per ounce, with both core products achieving over 125% growth year-to-date, significantly outperforming gold [1]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The global silver demand is projected to reach 36,207 tons in 2024, with industrial demand accounting for 58.5%. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for industrial silver demand from 2019 to 2024 is expected to be 5.4%, contributing 98% to the total growth in silver demand during this period [5]. - The supply side is characterized by rigidity, with a forecasted CAGR of only 1.2% for global silver supply from 2024 to 2027. The supply-demand gap is expected to widen from 4,498 tons in 2025 to 6,791 tons by 2027 [5]. Market Sentiment and Speculation - Current market sentiment is heavily influenced by strong overseas demand for silver, primarily in stockpiling rather than industrial use, creating a concentrated squeeze-like scenario. This, combined with heightened speculative activity, has contributed to the surge in silver prices [4]. - Short-term predictions suggest that while silver prices may stabilize after Q1 2026, there remains upward momentum above $60, with potential new support levels between $50 and $60 [5]. Regulatory Actions - In response to the overheated silver market, regulatory bodies have adjusted trading margin requirements and price fluctuation limits for silver futures contracts to mitigate excessive volatility [6]. Investment Recommendations - Analysts suggest that investors may consider more stable alternatives like gold or explore new products such as platinum and palladium, given the increased volatility in silver prices. It is advised to implement timely profit-taking and stop-loss strategies to manage risks effectively [6].