酒企厂商博弈加剧、新年任务难定，能否共度寒冬

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor market is experiencing significant adjustments, leading to a more complex relationship between liquor companies and distributors as they negotiate sales targets for the upcoming year [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Sales for liquor companies have declined by 20-30% compared to last year, with reduced demand from corporate clients and a noticeable drop in group purchase orders [1]. - Distributors express concerns over the lack of clarity regarding sales targets and the "opening red" incentives typically offered by liquor companies [1]. - The current market environment has led both liquor companies and distributors to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach regarding sales tasks for the new year [1]. Group 2: Company Responses - Unlike previous years, liquor companies are adopting a more lenient approach towards distributors, recognizing the pressure of potential distributor exits and the challenges of recruiting new ones [2]. - There is currently no clear "opening red" policy from liquor companies, as they are considering the actual operating conditions of distributors before setting targets [2]. - For publicly listed liquor companies, adjusting sales targets poses a dilemma, as it directly impacts revenue and net profit metrics [2]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The liquor industry is facing a dual challenge: the need to maintain sales during peak seasons while also managing inventory levels to stabilize market prices [4]. - The industry is undergoing a deep adjustment characterized by high inventory levels and changing consumer preferences, necessitating a focus on quality and sustainable business models rather than mere expansion [4].