Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government bond market is experiencing significant sell-offs, with the 10-year bond yield reaching its highest level since June 2007, driven by rising interest rate expectations from the Bank of Japan and concerns over the government's fiscal policies [1][3][5]. Group 1: Rising Bond Yields - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield peaked at 1.978%, nearing the psychological 2% barrier not breached in nearly 20 years [1][3]. - Analysts attribute the continuous rise in yields to the Bank of Japan's increasing interest rate hike expectations [1][5]. Group 2: Bank of Japan's Rate Hike Expectations - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate hike in the upcoming policy meeting, raising short-term rates from 0.5% to 0.75%, the highest in 30 years [5]. - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to emphasize the commitment to further rate increases, with the pace depending on the economic response to each hike [5]. Group 3: Government Fiscal Policies - Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's expansionary fiscal policies are raising concerns about Japan's fiscal discipline, contributing to the pressure on government bonds [8]. - The approved supplementary budget for fiscal year 2025 amounts to 18.3 trillion yen, with over 60% of the funding sourced from new bond issuances [9]. - The supplementary budget is the largest post-pandemic, aimed at addressing rising prices and promoting economic growth, with significant allocations for subsidies and defense spending [9].
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券商中国·2025-12-17 07:59