刚刚，降息25个基点

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Thailand has lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, the lowest level since 2022, in an effort to support a fragile economy amid a strong baht and rising political uncertainty [4][9]. Economic Conditions - The Thai economy is facing significant challenges, including the impact of U.S. tariffs, severe flooding in the southern provinces, and fatal border conflicts with Cambodia [4]. - The central bank has revised its growth forecast for next year from 1.6% to 1.5% due to slowing consumption and exports [4][10]. Monetary Policy Decisions - The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously voted to lower the overnight repurchase rate, marking the fifth rate cut in the past 14 months [4][9]. - The decision aims to create a more accommodative financial environment to support economic recovery and alleviate the debt burden on vulnerable groups [4][9]. Currency and Inflation - The Thai baht has appreciated over 8% this year, making it the second-best performing currency in Asia, which has negatively impacted exports and tourism [6][11]. - Consumer prices in Thailand have been in negative growth since April, primarily due to supply-side factors, with inflation struggling to stabilize within the central bank's target range of 1% to 3% [8][11]. Future Economic Projections - The MPC projects economic growth rates of 2.2%, 1.5%, and 2.3% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a noted slowdown in private consumption and exports due to external pressures [10]. - Overall inflation is expected to remain low, with forecasts of -0.1%, 0.3%, and 1.0% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, primarily influenced by declining global energy prices and limited demand-driven inflation [11]. Financial Stability and Credit Conditions - Despite multiple rate cuts, credit remains constrained, reflecting weak private spending and investment amid rising uncertainty [11][12]. - The central bank will continue to monitor credit growth closely and support targeted financial measures to assist vulnerable groups, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) facing liquidity pressures [11][12].