日本国债猛烈抛售，加息，突传大消息

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government bond market is experiencing significant sell-offs, with the 10-year bond yield reaching its highest level since June 2007, driven by rising interest rate expectations from the Bank of Japan and concerns over the government's fiscal discipline due to expansive fiscal policies [1][2][8]. Group 1: Bank of Japan's Interest Rate Expectations - The 10-year government bond yield in Japan rose to 1.978%, marking a peak not seen since June 2007 [2]. - The market anticipates that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming policy meeting, increasing the short-term rate from 0.5% to 0.75%, the highest level in thirty years [4]. - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to emphasize the commitment to continue raising rates, with the pace of future increases depending on the economic response [4][5]. Group 2: Government Fiscal Policy and Concerns - Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's expansionary fiscal policy has raised market concerns about the government's fiscal discipline, contributing to the sell-off of Japanese government bonds [8]. - The Japanese government approved a supplementary budget of 18.3 trillion yen (approximately 118 billion USD), which is over 30% larger than the previous year's budget, aimed at addressing rising prices and promoting economic growth [8]. - The supplementary budget will finance over 60% of its expenditures through newly issued government bonds, raising concerns about the sustainability of Japan's fiscal situation [8][10]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The defense spending is projected to reach 2% of Japan's GDP, reflecting a significant increase in military expenditure [9]. - Analysts express concerns that the government's focus on large-scale fiscal spending without addressing revenue sources and structural reforms could lead to a depreciation of the yen, increased prices, and further decline in demand for Japanese government bonds [10].