铂金年内飙涨113%，三大因素曝光

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals have experienced a significant rally towards the end of the year, with platinum now joining the surge following substantial increases in gold and silver prices [1][4]. Price Performance Summary - As of December 17, silver leads the precious metals sector with a 128% increase year-to-date, followed by platinum with a 113% rise [4]. - On December 17, domestic platinum futures reached a new high, with prices hitting 527.55 yuan per gram, marking the second instance of a price limit increase since its listing [4]. - NYMEX platinum futures prices surpassed $1933 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 113%, second only to silver's 127% [6]. Factors Driving Platinum Price Increase - The recent surge in platinum prices is attributed to three main factors: tightening supply, awakening investment demand, and long-term growth expectations [7]. - The first phase of platinum's price increase occurred from May to July due to extreme weather, aging mines, and power restrictions in South Africa, leading to a 13% year-on-year decline in platinum group metal production [6]. - The second phase, from late August to mid-October, was driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, which heightened market risk aversion and boosted platinum's appeal as a safe-haven asset [6]. Future Market Outlook - The global platinum market is expected to face a shortage of 26.4 tons by 2025, despite a projected 4% decline in total demand to 244.8 tons [9]. - Factors contributing to this shortage include structural supply constraints and increased demand from the Chinese market for physical platinum [9]. - The introduction of platinum futures and options in China is expected to bolster demand, alongside European regulatory changes that may support automotive demand for platinum [10]. Analyst Perspectives - Analysts from TD Securities predict that while there may be concerns about reduced demand for automotive catalysts, strong growth in North American automotive demand could lead to significant fluctuations in platinum and palladium demand [11]. - The potential for tariffs on platinum group metals in the U.S. is considered higher than for silver, which could lead to market dynamics similar to the recent silver squeeze [11]. - In contrast, Heraeus Group expresses caution, suggesting that after significant price increases, precious metals may need to undergo a period of consolidation, with industrial demand and recession risks posing downward pressure on platinum prices [12].