券商中国·2025-12-17 23:34Core Viewpoint - Commercial banks are proactively preparing for the 2026 credit season by focusing on project reserves and customer management, indicating a strategic shift to enhance their operational foundations in a complex environment [1][2][3]. Group 1: Credit Strategy and Project Preparation - Several listed banks have begun to lay out their credit strategies for 2026, with some starting as early as the second half of 2025 to ensure a robust project reserve [2][3]. - Banks are conducting investor surveys to discuss their "early bird" strategies, credit focus areas, and measures to manage net interest margins and funding costs [3][4]. - Suzhou Bank and Jiangsu Bank have initiated project reserves and are aligning their credit strategies with regional economic transformations and key sectors [3][4]. Group 2: Net Interest Margin and Profitability Outlook - Analysts expect a positive trend in net interest margins for 2026, with many banks indicating that the pressure on margins is likely to ease, leading to a recovery in net interest income [2][6][7]. - Institutions like Ping An Securities predict that net interest income growth will rise to 4% due to improved pricing dynamics and reduced funding costs [6]. - The overall financial performance of listed banks is anticipated to surpass that of 2025, driven by a combination of interest margin stabilization and improved non-interest income [6][7]. Group 3: Sectoral Focus and Competitive Landscape - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to guide banks towards focusing on manufacturing, technological innovation, and green finance, with a significant emphasis on digital infrastructure and sustainable energy [7][8]. - There is a notable divergence in the competitive landscape, with state-owned banks benefiting from their scale and lower funding costs, while joint-stock banks face increasing pressure from both state-owned and city commercial banks [8].