美国重磅数据将公布

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for November, which is expected to provide insights into future monetary policy directions for Wall Street and the Federal Reserve amid a challenging economic landscape [3]. Economic Data Outlook - In April, the U.S. CPI year-on-year growth fell to a near four-year low of 2.3%. However, following the increase of tariffs to the highest levels in decades by President Trump, prices began to rise. By September, the inflation rate had increased to 3%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [5]. - The core issue is whether prices will continue to rise or if they will begin to decline as anticipated by several Federal Reserve officials and economists. The November CPI report, delayed due to a government shutdown, is expected to help clarify this situation [5]. Labor Market and Employment Data - Since September, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates three times to support a weakening labor market. The combined employment report for October and November, delayed due to the government shutdown, showed an addition of 64,000 non-farm jobs in November, while October saw a decrease of 105,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest in four years [6]. - Wall Street anticipates a potential decline in the unemployment rate in December, but short-term hiring activity in the job market is unlikely to improve [6]. Inflation Predictions - Institutions predict that the overall CPI and core CPI will both rise by 0.3% month-on-month in November. The year-on-year increase in overall prices may slightly rise from 3.0% to 3.1%, potentially marking the peak of inflation driven by tariffs. The core CPI year-on-year growth is expected to stabilize at 3% [7]. - Key indicators to watch include commodity prices and service costs, with service prices having increased by 3.5% year-on-year as of September, the smallest increase since the pandemic. A continued slowdown in service price growth may indicate a forthcoming decline in inflation [7]. Economic Growth and Consumer Behavior - Recent surveys indicate that U.S. economic growth is facing obstacles, with tariff-related price increases suppressing consumer demand and prompting companies to tighten hiring policies. Retail sales showed no month-on-month growth in October, particularly affecting low- and middle-income households [8]. - The K-shaped economic recovery is evident, with high-income households continuing to drive non-essential spending, while low-income households have reduced spending on travel and clothing, highlighting the widening economic disparity [8]. Federal Reserve's Internal Disagreements - Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials have highlighted internal divisions regarding future monetary policy. Some officials warn that it is premature to declare that inflation has been tamed, while others maintain a dovish stance, suggesting that inflation may soon ease [9]. - The updated interest rate dot plot from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) indicates that only one rate cut may occur this year, while futures markets suggest an 80% probability of a rate cut by June [10]. Conclusion - The article emphasizes the complexity of the economic situation, with the potential for further interest rate cuts depending on employment and inflation performance. The Federal Reserve's internal dynamics and the impact of the upcoming leadership change may also influence future monetary policy decisions [10].