预期升温背后：平安好医生打造中国HMO新样板

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's recent report significantly raised the target price for Ping An from 70 yuan to nearly 90 yuan, predicting that Ping An Good Doctor's stock price could double within the year [1][13]. Group 1: Ping An Good Doctor's Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Ping An Good Doctor is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 13.6% year-on-year and a net profit surge of 72.6% [1]. - Despite being smaller than competitors like JD and Alibaba, Ping An Good Doctor's differentiated business model and vast potential have captured market attention [1]. Group 2: HMO Model and Its Significance - The HMO (Health Maintenance Organization) model, exemplified by UnitedHealth Group, integrates pre-paid premiums with exclusive medical services, shifting from traditional reimbursement to proactive health management [3][4]. - UnitedHealth's Optum division has become a growth engine, contributing over 50% of the company's revenue and profits, showcasing the sustainability of the "insurance + full-chain medical services" model [5]. Group 3: Ping An's Strategic Framework - Ping An aims to create a Chinese version of the HMO model by combining comprehensive financial services with healthcare, leveraging its resources from Ping An Good Doctor and other subsidiaries [7]. - The company has established a robust medical service network and a large healthcare database, which supports its "four services" framework: online, hospital, home, and enterprise services [8][10][11]. Group 4: Market Opportunities - The commercial health insurance market in China is expected to grow significantly, with an annual growth rate exceeding 20%, presenting a substantial opportunity for Ping An Good Doctor [11][12]. - Ping An Good Doctor has a leading position in corporate health management, having served over 56,000 corporate clients and 26 million employees, which positions it well for future growth [12]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Ping An Good Doctor is poised to leverage its internal service network and operational efficiencies to expand into external markets, including government healthcare systems, thereby diversifying its revenue streams [11][13]. - The potential market size and the company's strategic positioning suggest a promising future, with Morgan Stanley's target price adjustment reflecting confidence in its long-term growth potential [13].