日美利率差缩小，日元仍贬值之谜

Core Viewpoint - The traditional conclusion that a narrowing interest rate differential leads to yen appreciation has become invalid, as the yen remains depreciated despite the narrowing of the US-Japan interest rate gap to its lowest level in three years [2][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Dynamics - The Bank of Japan is expected to discuss raising policy rates in its upcoming meeting, with a 95% probability of an increase predicted by the market [4]. - The actual interest rate differential has shrunk to its lowest level in two and a half years, yet the yen continues to trade around 155 yen per dollar, similar to the beginning of the year [4][6]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Japan's current account surplus for January to October reached 27.6 trillion yen, with expectations of setting a new historical high for the year [6]. - Japan has experienced trade deficits for four consecutive years, with a deficit of 1.5 trillion yen recorded for the first ten months of 2025, primarily due to dollar-denominated imports [6]. Group 3: Service Balance and Future Projections - The service balance has shown a significant deficit of 5.6 trillion yen, while tourism income has provided a surplus of 5.4 trillion yen, indicating a precarious balance [6]. - Projections suggest that the digital deficit could exceed tourism surpluses, leading to continued yen depreciation, with estimates indicating a potential increase in the digital deficit to 18 trillion yen by 2035 [6][7]. Group 4: Investment Trends - The introduction of Japan's NISA investment scheme has led to increased outflows, with an average monthly outflow of 690 billion yen since its implementation, significantly higher than previous levels [9]. - The number of NISA accounts is expected to rise from 27 million to around 40 million, maintaining a consistent pressure to sell yen at an annual scale of 10 trillion yen for the next 5 to 10 years [9]. Group 5: Fiscal Policy Concerns - Concerns are growing regarding the impact of fiscal stimulus policies on economic growth and the credibility of the yen, as evidenced by rising credit default swap (CDS) margins for Japanese government bonds [9][10]. - The general account total of the supplementary budget for the fiscal year 2025 has reached a new high post-COVID, raising alarms about fiscal expansion [9].