邢自强：更多消费补贴政策或在明年下半年

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work conference indicates a moderate approach to economic stabilization rather than strong stimulus, focusing on maintaining growth levels and alleviating deflationary pressures without significant policy shifts [3]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal deficit, including both explicit and implicit components, is set to remain at levels similar to 2025, with an emphasis on front-loading expenditures, particularly in infrastructure such as urban renewal and green transformation projects [4]. - There is potential for an additional fiscal space equivalent to 0.5% of GDP if conditions in real estate, prices, and employment improve in the first half of the year [5]. Monetary Policy - The actual space for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions is limited, with a focus on structural tools and quasi-fiscal measures, suggesting a possible reduction of 10-20 basis points throughout the year [5]. Real Estate Policy - Support measures for real estate, such as subsidizing mortgage rates, may not materialize until after the national two sessions, with details expected in the second quarter of 2026 [5]. - A broad and sustained subsidy for mortgage rates could stabilize market expectations and break the negative feedback loop of falling housing prices and credit contraction [6][9]. Consumption Policy - The continuation of the national subsidy for replacing old with new products is expected, with adjustments in scale and coverage, but there is uncertainty about significant support for service sector consumption [6]. - Direct subsidies for consumer spending, particularly in the service sector, may take longer to implement, potentially not appearing until the second half of the year [6]. Export Outlook - Despite concerns about export reliance, China's share of global exports is projected to increase from 15% to 16-17% over the next five years, with growth rates expected to outpace global trade growth [7]. - The shift towards "de-China-ization" is seen as a trade chain extension rather than a reduction in China's market share, with Chinese enterprises maintaining a competitive edge in high-value sectors [7][8]. Talent and Innovation - China produces approximately 11 million university graduates annually, with a significant portion in engineering and technology fields, contributing to its competitive advantage in key sectors [8]. - The global supply chain is evolving towards multi-polarity but remains reliant on Chinese enterprises, indicating a robust position for China in the global market [8]. Economic Transition - There is a call for a shift towards consumption-driven growth in 2026, emphasizing social security improvements and support for farmers and migrant workers to enhance consumer capacity [8]. - A broader focus on supporting service sector consumption through subsidies and vouchers is recommended to stimulate economic activity [8].