全球基金经理现金持有率创26年来新低

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant decline in the average cash holding of global fund managers, dropping from 3.7% in November to 3.3% in December, marking the lowest level since the survey began in 1999 [2] - A record 42% of fund managers reported increasing their global stock holdings, the highest level since 2022, indicating a strong shift towards equities and commodities despite concerns over potential negative events [2][4] - The overall sentiment among global fund managers is the most optimistic since mid-2021, surpassing the optimism seen during the "Trump trade" peak at the end of 2024, driven by expectations of strong corporate profit growth [4][5] Group 2 - Analysts from Barclays and UBS express a positive outlook for global markets, suggesting that the current economic environment favors stock market growth, with expectations of profit growth between 7% and 14% in major markets [5][6] - Investment strategies are advised to diversify beyond AI themes to include broader technology sectors, energy supply, and critical materials, while maintaining a balance between defensive and cyclical sectors [5] - Concerns are raised about the potential volatility in the market due to low cash levels among fund managers, which could lead to severe reactions to negative news, highlighting the fragility of the current optimistic sentiment [6][8]