2025年碳酸锂市场盘点——风与潮

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing a significant transformation in 2025, with a notable recovery in prices and production driven by strong demand from the energy storage sector and adjustments in mining rights and environmental regulations [2][10][14]. Group 1: Lithium Carbonate Price Trends - In 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate market showed a trend of initial decline followed by recovery, with prices dropping below 60,000 yuan, marking a 22% decrease in the first half of the year [2]. - The second half of 2025 saw a surge in orders from the energy storage sector, leading to a rebound in lithium carbonate prices, with market inventory decreasing from approximately 55 days to around 27 days by year-end [2]. - Market volatility increased due to ongoing supply-demand dynamics, with rumors about mining resumption affecting price fluctuations throughout the fourth quarter [2]. Group 2: Production Growth of Lithium Salt Enterprises - In response to mining rights adjustments, several lithium salt companies in Jiangxi shifted production lines from lithium mica to spodumene, while others converted some hydroxide lithium capacity to carbonate to meet the rising demand for lithium iron phosphate [4]. - According to ICC Xinluo Lithium Battery Database, domestic lithium carbonate production reached 926,000 tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 34%, with spodumene, salt lake, and lithium mica production growing by 43%, 30%, and 17% respectively [5]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook for 2026 - The market anticipates a consistent increase in lithium resource demand, estimated around 2 million tons (LCE equivalent) for 2026, while supply projections remain varied due to ongoing capacity releases [7]. - The global lithium resource capacity is expected to reach 2.55-2.6 million tons (LCE equivalent) in 2026, with an actual supply forecast of approximately 2.17 million tons, resulting in a supply-demand ratio of 108% [10]. - The average price of domestic lithium carbonate is projected to rise to a range of 85,000 to 125,000 yuan, with an expected average of 95,000 to 100,000 yuan, reflecting an increase of about 20,000 yuan compared to 2025 [10]. Group 4: Supply Chain Challenges - Domestic mining rights issues in Jiangxi and Qinghai remain unresolved, potentially limiting lithium mica production contributions in 2026 [9]. - Political instability in several African countries may impact lithium ore exports, with specific risks noted in Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and other regions [9][11]. - The overall market is expected to face constraints on price increases due to the sensitivity of the energy storage sector to cost changes and the potential for competition from sodium batteries and recycled materials [13][16].