【库存系数】2025年11月汽车经销商库存系数为1.57

Core Viewpoint - The automotive dealer inventory coefficient in November 2025 reached 1.57, indicating a significant increase both month-on-month (34.2%) and year-on-year (41.4%), suggesting that inventory levels are above the warning line and higher than the reasonable range [2][3]. Group 1: Inventory Trends - In November, the passenger car market showed a low-to-high trend, but the expected year-end "tail effect" did not significantly materialize. Early in the month, the market was sluggish due to preemptive consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October," tightening subsidy policies, and delays in the new energy vehicle tax exemption plan, leading over 80% of dealers to hold a pessimistic outlook for November [5]. - By the end of November, the estimated total inventory of automotive dealers was approximately 3.5 million vehicles, based on a terminal sales volume of 2.225 million vehicles [5]. Group 2: Brand-Specific Inventory Coefficients - The inventory coefficient for high-end luxury and imported brands was 1.58, up 37.4% month-on-month. For joint venture brands, the coefficient was 1.70, increasing by 41.7%, while for domestic brands, it was 1.51, rising by 30.2% [6][9]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Recommendations - December is expected to see a mild recovery in terminal consumption, driven by increased promotions from manufacturers and dealers aiming to meet annual targets, along with some pre-holiday purchasing demand being released. However, the overall market is not expected to exhibit a significant tail effect due to the exhaustion of subsidy funds in many regions and weak demand for fuel vehicle replacements [10]. - The China Automobile Dealers Association recommends that dealers rationally estimate actual market demand and enhance the promotion of "trade-in and scrapping policies" to boost consumer confidence while prioritizing cost reduction and efficiency [10].