贵金属大涨，多家机构提醒超买！明年更看好这一品种

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance and outlook of precious metals, particularly gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, highlighting the significant price increases in 2023 and the differing forecasts for 2024 and beyond from various financial institutions [2][3][4]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - As of December 18, 2023, precious metals have been the main drivers of market gains, with palladium contracts hitting the limit up, platinum rising over 5%, and silver increasing more than 3% [3]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have surged over 65%, silver has increased by more than 126%, platinum has risen over 116%, and palladium has seen a 95% increase [3]. Group 2: Future Outlook - BMO Capital Markets predicts that gold will continue its upward trend, with an expected average price of $4,600 per ounce in the first half of 2024 and an annual average of $4,550 per ounce for 2026 [3]. - The outlook for silver is more complex, with BMO forecasting an average price of approximately $56.30 per ounce for 2026, peaking at around $60 per ounce in Q4 2026 [4]. - Morgan Stanley anticipates a slowdown in gold price increases due to reduced purchases by central banks and ETFs, predicting a price of $4,800 per ounce by Q4 2024, while silver is expected to underperform [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recent surge in silver trading has led to record high futures trading volumes in the U.S., with over 158,000 contracts traded on December 17, 2023 [6]. - The value of silver has surpassed that of crude oil for the first time in over 40 years, indicating its growing importance as both an industrial and investment asset [6]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates further, which could weaken the dollar and increase demand for non-dollar assets [7]. - Barclays Bank predicts two rate cuts in 2024, aligning with the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve [7].