深度丨股价持续调整，港股“新消费三姐妹”怎么了？“流量”和“故事”降温，如何从“网红”变“长红”？

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market's new consumption sector, represented by the "New Consumption Three Sisters" (Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, and Mixue Group), has experienced significant adjustments due to a correction of previously high valuations and a deep examination of the sustainability of their business models [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Adjustment and Valuation - The "New Consumption Three Sisters" saw stock price declines of 43%, 39%, and 35% from their peak prices as of December 18 [1]. - High valuations were evident earlier this year, with Lao Pu Gold's dynamic P/E ratio exceeding 142 times and Pop Mart reaching 113 times, compared to Disney and LVMH's P/E ratios of around 20-40 times [3]. - The market's skepticism regarding the sustainability of these companies' business models has led to a significant reduction in holdings by major funds during the third quarter [3][4]. Group 2: Business Model Challenges - Pop Mart's reliance on IP and its focus on young consumers face challenges as the popularity of its LABUBU product wanes, indicating difficulties in sustaining single-hit products [3]. - Lao Pu Gold's positioning towards high-income consumers is hindered by high gold prices, creating a conflict between its premium positioning and consumer demand [3]. - Mixue Group is struggling with balancing expansion and profitability in a highly competitive tea beverage market [4]. Group 3: Growth Strategies - Despite stock price declines, the fundamentals of the "New Consumption Three Sisters" remain strong, with Mixue Group reporting a 39.3% revenue growth and a 44.1% net profit increase in the first half of the year [6]. - The companies are actively pursuing a "second growth curve" through international expansion, supply chain innovation, and brand value enhancement [6][7]. - Mixue Group's coffee brand, Lucky Coffee, has surpassed 10,000 global stores, indicating rapid market penetration for affordable coffee in China [6][7]. Group 4: Cultural and Brand Development - The new consumption companies are transitioning from a focus on "traffic selling" to establishing cultural and brand significance, which is essential for long-term sustainability [8][10]. - To compete with international giants like Disney, these companies need to evolve in three dimensions: enhancing value through cultural narratives, building a robust ecosystem beyond single products, and fostering deep trust with consumers [10][11]. - Strong brand culture and continuous innovation are critical for these companies to navigate market cycles and maintain competitiveness [11].