【乘联分会论坛】12月狭义乘用车零售预计230.0万辆，新能源预计138.0万辆

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market in China is experiencing a slowdown due to the withdrawal of replacement subsidies and consumer hesitation, with a notable decline in overall vehicle sales while the new energy vehicle (NEV) segment shows some resilience [2][7]. Group 1: November Market Review - As of mid-November, the retail sales of narrow-sense passenger vehicles reached 2.225 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.1% [2]. - In contrast, the retail sales of new energy narrow-sense passenger vehicles were 1.321 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.2% and a month-on-month growth of 3.0%, with a market penetration rate of 59.3% [2]. Group 2: December Market Outlook - December is traditionally a peak season for the automotive market, with manufacturers leveraging the "Double Twelve" e-commerce event for promotions to boost annual sales targets [3]. - Despite the withdrawal of the old-for-new subsidy increasing consumer hesitation, the market is gradually returning to a seasonal norm due to year-end demand and expectations of reduced purchase tax subsidies [3]. Group 3: Manufacturer Sales Trends - Due to the significant adjustment of the old-for-new policy in November, most manufacturers have a neutral to conservative sales outlook for December, with major manufacturers maintaining or slightly increasing their retail targets compared to November [4]. - The estimated retail market size for December is approximately 2.3 million units, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 12.7%. The expected retail volume for new energy vehicles is around 1.38 million units, with a penetration rate of 60% [4]. Group 4: Weekly Sales Trends - In the first week of December, daily retail sales averaged 42,000 units, a year-on-year decline of 32.3% and a month-on-month decline of 7.8% [5]. - The second week saw an increase in daily retail sales to 67,000 units, a year-on-year decline of 16.8% but a month-on-month increase of 8.8% due to promotional efforts [5]. - The overall estimated retail market for December remains at 2.3 million units, with a month-on-month increase of 3.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.7% [5][6]. Group 5: Market Normalization Post-Policy Changes - The automotive market is currently in an adjustment phase following the exit of multiple consumer stimulus policies, with growth momentum shifting towards a demand-supply driven seasonal operation [7]. - As the new energy vehicle purchase tax subsidy transitions from full exemption to a 50% reduction, there has not been a significant "last-minute rush" effect observed in the market [7]. - Several automakers, including Weilai, Xiaopeng, and Aito, have introduced "tax coverage plans" to stabilize consumer expectations and mitigate market fluctuations caused by policy changes [7].