2026年添加剂VC需求高达9.8万吨，增幅47%

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant growth in energy storage battery production, projecting a production of 620 GWh in 2025 and exceeding 960 GWh in 2026, representing a 55% increase [1] - The demand for additives, specifically VC, is expected to surge, with a projected requirement of 31,000 tons in 2025 and 52,000 tons in 2026, marking a 67% increase [1] - Global VC demand is forecasted to reach 66,000 tons in 2025 and 98,000 tons in 2026, reflecting a 47% growth [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - In 2026, the effective production capacity for VC is estimated at 115,000 tons, with total demand at 98,000 tons and total supply at 100,000 tons, indicating a market operating at 89% capacity [3] - Quarterly production rates are projected to fluctuate, with Q1 at 91%, Q2 at 85%, Q3 at 88%, and Q4 at 90%, showing a "V-shaped" trend due to new capacity coming online in Q2 [3] Market Outlook - The forecast for 2026 indicates that VC shipments will exceed 100,000 tons, with a slight surplus in Q2 and tight conditions in other quarters, leading to a potential price drop in Q2 but sustained high prices in subsequent quarters [5] - Under optimistic conditions, energy storage could exceed expectations with shipments surpassing 1,000 GWh, further increasing VC demand, and a supply gap may emerge in the second half of the year, keeping VC prices elevated [5]