格隆汇APP·2025-12-19 10:13Core Viewpoint - The U.S. photovoltaic (PV) market is expected to experience a "demand explosion + capacity return" by 2025, driven by AI computing power expansion and a declining interest rate cycle, leading to a projected installation capacity of over 60GW in 2025 with a compound annual growth rate of 20% [5][6]. Demand Side - The share of renewable energy generation in the U.S. is approximately 10%, significantly lower than the global average of 30%, indicating substantial potential for energy structure transformation [7]. - The demand for PV is catalyzed by the electricity needs of AI data centers and the recovery of the manufacturing sector, as these facilities operate continuously and require stable energy sources, making PV an attractive option [7]. - The arrival of a declining interest rate cycle enhances the demand potential, as the internal rate of return (IRR) for PV projects is closely linked to interest rates, leading to lower financing costs and increased investment willingness from developers [8]. Policy Side - The U.S. government is promoting domestic PV industry localization through a combination of manufacturing subsidies and trade protection measures. Although the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for distributed projects will gradually be phased out after 2027, subsidies for manufacturing continue to support the industry [9]. - Current domestic PV capacity planning in the U.S. is set at 60-70GW, with approximately 40GW of component capacity already in operation, but a significant gap remains in battery cell production, highlighting a structural imbalance in the industry [9]. Manufacturing Challenges - U.S. PV manufacturing faces three main pressures: high labor costs, high energy consumption, and high compliance costs, necessitating the adoption of more efficient and lower-cost technology solutions [10]. - The cost structure for U.S. manufacturing is significantly higher than that of China, with labor costs being 3.5 times higher, energy costs 2.1 times higher, and depreciation costs 1.3 times higher [11]. - The shift in market focus from capital expenditure (CAPEX) to operational expenditure (OPEX) favors technologies like Heterojunction Technology (HJT), which offers superior operational efficiency compared to traditional technologies [11]. HJT Technology Advantages - HJT technology has a unique advantage in the U.S. market due to its lack of patent barriers, as its core patents expired in 2015, allowing companies to avoid patent litigation risks [15]. - The recognition of HJT technology has led to substantial capacity expansion plans, with several U.S. companies announcing HJT capacity increases totaling over 30GW by the end of 2025 [15]. Chinese Equipment Suppliers - The expansion of HJT capacity in the U.S. will benefit Chinese PV equipment manufacturers, who hold a dominant position in the global market, particularly in HJT production line equipment [18]. - Chinese equipment suppliers, such as Maiwei, have over 70% market share in HJT equipment, providing a cost-effective solution that meets U.S. environmental and technical standards [18]. - The competitive advantages of Chinese equipment include lower prices (60%-70% of overseas equipment) and faster service response times, making them the preferred choice for U.S. manufacturers [18]. Investment Focus - The clear investment theme emerging from the U.S. PV market expansion and HJT technology adoption focuses on "equipment leaders + technology support," balancing performance certainty with growth potential [19]. - Key players include Maiwei, a leader in HJT equipment with significant market share, and Aotwei, a leader in component packaging equipment, both of which are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing capacity expansion [20]. - Supporting lines of investment include materials and technology companies that supply low-temperature silver paste and TCO targets, which are essential for HJT technology [21].