明年看好四大投资主题！摩根大通刘鸣镝：消费板块，估值有吸引力

Core Viewpoint - The target points for MSCI China Index, CSI 300 Index, and MSCI Hong Kong Index for 2026 are set at 100 points, 5200 points, and 16000 points respectively, indicating a potential double-digit upside from current levels [1][5]. Investment Themes - Four key investment themes for 2026 are identified: "anti-involution," growth in global AI infrastructure spending, the positive impact of developed countries' easing policies on exports, and the "K-shaped" recovery in consumption benefiting food and beverage and ultra-high-end consumption sectors [2][5]. - A potential fifth theme is the stabilization of the real estate market, with expectations of clearer signals from policy changes in early 2024 [5]. Market Outlook - The outlook for 2026 is optimistic, with expectations of a "spring sprint" in the market, particularly for growth stocks, as the current economic cycle is in the "summer" phase, which is typically followed by a recovery phase [3]. - The investment strategy suggests a shift from crowded growth and momentum sectors to value, defensive, and high-yield stocks, with the current market dynamics expected to continue into early next year [3]. Sector Analysis - Semiconductor valuations are currently considered high, while sectors such as photovoltaics and energy storage are viewed more favorably [6]. - The AI capital expenditure growth is expected to benefit Chinese companies, with a focus on the energy storage and photovoltaic sectors, which are still in the recovery phase [6][7]. Consumer Sector Insights - The consumer sector is seen as having attractive valuations, with the MSCI China Consumer Staples Index having a lower price-to-earnings ratio compared to markets like India and the U.S. [10]. - The current consumer spending slowdown is attributed more to confidence and employment concerns rather than a lack of funds, indicating potential for recovery as confidence improves [9][10].