对话陈海生：新型储能5年增长30倍，未来企业创业和发展壮大的机遇期有多长？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rapid growth and transformation of China's new energy storage industry, highlighting its global leadership in installed capacity and the shift towards high-quality market development [2][5]. Industry Growth and Trends - As of mid-2023, China's new energy storage capacity reached approximately 95 million kilowatts, a nearly 30-fold increase over five years, accounting for over 40% of the global total [2]. - The demand for energy storage has surged due to the large-scale development of renewable energy, with pumped storage capacity growing from about 30 million kilowatts in 2020 to approximately 60 million kilowatts by mid-2025 [3]. - Lithium-ion batteries have seen their market share increase from 8% in 2020 to 60% currently, while pumped storage's share has decreased from nearly 90% to below 40% [3]. Market Dynamics - The lithium battery industry is experiencing price declines, with prices dropping more than the cost reductions achieved by many companies, leading to a polarized market where leading firms maintain profitability while others face losses [4]. - The storage industry is recognized as a trillion-yuan pillar industry with significant growth potential, as China leads in capacity, output, and patents [5]. Technological Developments - Solid-state batteries are anticipated to transition from liquid to semi-solid and eventually to solid-state technology, with mass production expected between 2025 and 2030 [6][7]. - Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology is seen as a promising development, allowing electric vehicles to interact with the grid and provide storage capacity, although challenges in technology and settlement mechanisms remain [8]. Applications in Construction - The "photovoltaic-storage-direct-flexible" technology allows buildings to become energy producers, but initial investment costs and regulatory standards need to be addressed for broader implementation [9]. Business Models - Different regions in China exhibit varying preferences for energy storage business models, influenced by local resource endowments and market demands [10][11]. - The shift from mandatory to voluntary energy storage integration in renewable projects is expected to enhance the quality of products and companies in the sector [12][13]. Future Outlook - The energy storage market is projected to grow significantly, with expectations of pumped storage capacity reaching 120 million kilowatts and new energy storage increasing to 200-300 million kilowatts by 2030 [16]. - The transition to a market-driven model for energy storage is essential, requiring improvements in technology, market structure, and pricing mechanisms to ensure sustainable investment [18].