关键时刻！重磅研判，信息量大

Core Viewpoint - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets are expected to continue their upward trend in 2026, with "technology + overseas expansion" remaining the main investment theme [2][9]. Group 1: 2025 Market Overview - The A-share market exhibited a volatile upward trend in 2025, with small-cap growth stocks outperforming due to catalysts like DeepSeek [6]. - The market experienced a "V-shaped" recovery after a sharp decline in Q2, driven by increased overseas AI demand [6]. - Key unexpected areas included the overseas expansion of Chinese companies and the commercialization of AI, which exceeded initial expectations [6][7]. - The bull market was supported by policy shifts, improved liquidity, and a favorable global economic environment [7][8]. Group 2: 2026 Market Outlook - A-share earnings growth is anticipated to show a "front low and back high" trend, while Hong Kong stocks may see a style shift towards core assets [10]. - The "new four bulls" logic includes capital inflow, technological innovation, institutional reform, and consumption upgrade [10][11]. - The A-share market is expected to enter a recovery phase in earnings, driven by improving liquidity and positive signals from the real estate sector [11][12]. - The overall economic growth is projected to remain stable, with a focus on quality improvement as the negative impact of real estate diminishes [12]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The "technology + overseas expansion" theme is expected to be a key driver of A-share earnings growth over the next three years [14]. - Key sectors to watch include AI applications, electric power, and high-end manufacturing, particularly in areas like engineering machinery and chemicals [14][15]. - The focus on "new highs" in sectors such as non-ferrous metals and new consumption is emphasized, alongside the importance of global competitiveness [15][16]. - Seven major investment themes for 2026 include policy cycles, technology cycles, real estate cycles, and capital market reforms [16]. Group 4: Market Differentiation and Trends - Market differentiation is expected to narrow, driven by positive changes in domestic demand and the performance of high-growth sectors [20][21]. - The transition from a liquidity-driven bull market to one driven by earnings improvement is anticipated, with a focus on cyclical sectors [21][22]. - The current extreme differentiation in the market is unlikely to persist, with a gradual shift towards a more balanced market structure expected in 2026 [22]. Group 5: Risks and Considerations - Key risks include policy uncertainties and potential changes in U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, which could impact liquidity [26]. - The performance of the real estate sector and the overseas revenue of A-share companies are critical factors to monitor [26].