年末QDII限额低至10元，552份风险提示拦不住溢价抢筹
第一财经·2025-12-21 12:52

Core Viewpoint - The QDII fund market is experiencing a tightening of purchase limits, with many products reducing daily subscription limits to as low as 10 RMB, indicating a significant demand for overseas assets and leading to high premium risks [3][4]. Group 1: QDII Fund Market Dynamics - Multiple QDII funds have recently implemented strict purchase limits, with some popular products reducing daily subscription limits to 10 RMB, raising market concerns [4]. - As of December 21, over 90 QDII products have adjusted their subscription rules since the fourth quarter, affecting popular overseas markets such as the US and Japan [5]. - Nearly half of the QDII products in the market are currently under purchase restrictions, with 21 products completely closed to new subscriptions and 138 facing varying degrees of large purchase limits [5][6]. Group 2: Premium Risks and Market Reactions - The scarcity of QDII quotas has led to a significant increase in premium rates, with over 550 risk warning announcements issued in the past month due to high premiums [7][8]. - Some QDII products have reported IOPV premium rates exceeding 20%, indicating a strong market demand despite warnings from fund companies about potential losses from blind investments [8][9]. - The phenomenon of high premiums is attributed to a combination of strong market demand and ineffective arbitrage mechanisms, leading to a "hot炒" situation in the market [8]. Group 3: Outlook on US Stock Market - Analysts express optimism about the US stock market, predicting further growth in the S&P 500 index, with expectations of reaching 7,300 points by mid-2024 and 7,700 points by the end of 2026 [11]. - The influence of artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to expand beyond technology sectors, potentially driving productivity and corporate earnings, which are crucial for stock performance [11][12]. - Concerns about a technology bubble are noted, but analysts believe that current tech stocks have stronger fundamental support compared to previous market cycles [12].