美联储，降息突发！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, represented by Cleveland Fed President Beth Harmack, indicates a hawkish stance suggesting that interest rates will remain high for an extended period, with no immediate need for adjustments in the coming months [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - Harmack opposes recent interest rate cuts, citing concerns over persistent inflation rather than fears of a weakening labor market [1]. - She believes the current interest rate level (3.5% to 3.75%) may still provide some economic stimulus, as it is slightly below her estimated neutral rate [4]. - Harmack suggests that the Fed should wait until spring to reassess the need for rate adjustments, allowing for better evaluation of inflation trends and the impact of tariffs on supply chains [4]. Group 2: Inflation Concerns - The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, but Harmack argues that this may underestimate the actual inflation rate, which could be closer to 2.9% or 3.0% after adjustments for data collection issues [3]. - She expresses skepticism about the reliability of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data, emphasizing the need for caution in interpreting inflation metrics [3]. - Harmack highlights that higher input costs, including those from tariffs, may lead companies to raise prices significantly in the first quarter, contributing to ongoing inflationary pressures [4].