分布式储能盈利难题仍待解

Core Viewpoint - The distributed energy storage industry in China is entering a critical period of scale development and breakthrough in business models, driven by rapid growth in installed capacity and the emergence of deep-seated issues such as reliance on single profit models and inadequate safety standards [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Growth and Applications - From 2019 to Q3 2025, China's cumulative installed capacity of distributed energy storage is expected to grow from 570 MW to over 3638 MW, representing an increase of more than five times [3]. - Six main application scenarios have emerged in the distributed energy storage sector: industrial and commercial storage, distributed photovoltaic storage, green electricity direct connection, substation storage, virtual power plants, and charging and swapping stations [3]. - The industrial and commercial storage model is the most mature, primarily generating revenue through time-of-use electricity price arbitrage, with provinces like Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Zhejiang leading in installed capacity due to significant peak-valley price differences [3]. Group 2: Policy and Market Drivers - The rapid development of distributed energy storage is attributed to a dual drive from policy guidance and market mechanisms, with new application scenarios like zero-carbon parks and data centers creating a strong demand for green electricity consumption [5]. - The advancement of electricity market reforms has opened new revenue channels for distributed energy storage, allowing participation in various market transactions such as electricity spot markets and frequency regulation [5]. Group 3: Challenges and Structural Issues - The commercial viability of industrial and commercial storage projects heavily relies on peak-valley price arbitrage, making the industry vulnerable to policy changes [11]. - Key structural challenges include high development costs, safety issues due to a lack of unified standards, and low-price competition leading to inconsistent product quality [12]. - The economic viability of typical 2-hour lithium battery storage projects is projected to decline, with investment recovery periods extending from 5.4 years to 9.1 years due to recent adjustments in peak-valley pricing policies [11]. Group 4: Future Development and Recommendations - The key to overcoming current challenges lies in transforming distributed energy storage from a "policy-driven arbitrage tool" to a "flexible resource with multiple values in the electricity market" [14]. - Future developments are expected to focus on technological advancements, market expansion, and the evolution of business models, with an emphasis on AI for better load and price forecasting [15]. - Recommendations include widening peak-valley price differences, improving demand response mechanisms, and establishing safety standards in the short term, while promoting deeper electricity market reforms and exploring capacity value in the medium to long term [16].