日本货币政策仍未实现正常化

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintains a dovish stance on interest rate hikes, which is interpreted by the market as less aggressive than expected, contributing to the continued depreciation of the yen [2][6]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - The BOJ plans to continue raising interest rates, but the actual rates remain significantly negative due to price fluctuations, indicating that monetary easing is still substantial [2][4]. - BOJ President Ueda expressed that if wages and prices continue to rise, interest rates will be adjusted at an appropriate time [4]. - The market's expectation for aggressive rate hikes has diminished following the BOJ's statements, with the interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S. narrowing by 0.5 percentage points [6]. Group 2: Economic and Price Outlook - Ueda indicated that the neutral interest rate is difficult to estimate and will be assessed at each meeting based on economic and financial conditions [8]. - Concerns about the yen's depreciation impacting domestic prices are prevalent within the BOJ, as rising import costs could lead to higher core inflation rates [9]. - The government, while allowing the BOJ to decide on monetary policy, has mixed opinions on the timing of rate hikes, with some officials suggesting that the December hike may have been premature [9]. Group 3: Future Rate Hike Expectations - Market predictions suggest that the pace of rate hikes may be limited to once or twice a year, with some economists forecasting a gradual increase to 1.5% by mid-2027 [9]. - The risk of delayed rate hikes is increasing, and there is a belief that the BOJ may need to consider the government's preference for maintaining low rates [9].