报告：未来5年中国车企海外份额将占15%~20%

Core Viewpoint - By 2030, Chinese automotive companies are expected to achieve overseas sales of 7.5 to 10 million units, with an overseas market share of 15% to 20%. However, a temporary plateau is anticipated in the next two years due to factors such as overseas inventory, localization research and development, and factory construction cycles [3][4]. Group 1: Globalization of Chinese Automotive Industry - The automotive industry has experienced multiple globalization windows, with the current window from 2020 to 2030 presenting opportunities for Chinese companies to lead in smart connectivity and new energy sectors [3]. - In the past five years, the overseas sales share of Chinese automotive brands has rapidly increased, nearly matching that of American and Korean brands, establishing a competitive landscape among the top five automotive powers: China, Japan, South Korea, the U.S., and Europe [4]. Group 2: Export Performance and Market Dynamics - In November, China's automotive exports reached 728,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 48.5%, marking the first month with exports exceeding 700,000 units. For the first eleven months of the year, exports totaled 6.343 million units, up 18.7% year-on-year, with expectations to reach a historical high of 7 million units for the entire year [5]. - The top ten countries for Chinese automotive exports in the first three quarters included the UAE, Mexico, Russia, Belgium, the UK, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Australia, the Philippines, and Kazakhstan [5]. Group 3: Localization Challenges - To successfully penetrate and establish a foothold in the European market, Chinese automotive companies need to achieve deep localization across the entire value chain, which is essential for building sustainable cost advantages and brand influence [5]. - Current localization rates for Chinese brands are lower compared to other countries, with American brands showing high and variable localization rates, Japanese and European brands exceeding 80%, and Korean brands continuously improving [6]. - Historically, China's auto parts industry focused on cost advantages and pure export trade models, primarily serving European and American manufacturers. However, the current trend is shifting towards collaboration with automotive companies for market expansion, with a more diversified approach to business operations [6].