独家专访诺奖得主罗伯特·恩格尔：在不确定性时代解构风险

Core Viewpoint - The next financial crisis may be triggered by inflation, particularly due to fluctuating tariff policies, which could lead to significant market volatility and impact both bond and stock prices [1][14]. Group 1: Inflation and Market Impact - Tariff policies are likely to cause inflation, and if inflation rates remain high during the winter and spring, the Federal Reserve may struggle to decide between raising or lowering interest rates, leading to a potential crash in bond and stock markets [1][14]. - The financial markets have shown resilience despite various global risks, including geopolitical tensions and changing trade policies, largely due to factors like market optimism and support from the Federal Reserve [6]. Group 2: AI and Market Volatility - The debate around the AI bubble has intensified, with some stocks experiencing significant price increases, raising concerns about potential overvaluation [11]. - Engel does not view the AI sector as a typical bubble, suggesting that while some companies may be overvalued, others could sustain their high valuations [11][13]. Group 3: Currency and Global Economic Dynamics - The dollar is expected to continue depreciating, and there is speculation about the emergence of a multi-currency system, with the yuan and euro potentially gaining prominence [7][8]. - Central banks are diversifying their reserves by purchasing gold, indicating a shift away from reliance on the dollar [6]. Group 4: Climate Change and Policy Implications - The U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and subsequent policy changes have raised concerns about climate issues being sidelined, which could have long-term economic implications [8]. - Engel emphasizes the need for awareness of climate-related risks, although he currently sees no significant climate risk to the U.S. banking sector [10]. Group 5: Investment Strategies and Risk Management - Engel suggests that investors should consider holding cash or other assets that are less sensitive to economic fluctuations as a buffer against unpredictable events [2][18]. - The COVOL model can help investors build more resilient portfolios by assessing global risks and estimating the impact of various events on asset volatility [17].