日本央行加息后日债日元仍被持续卖出

Core Viewpoint - The depreciation of the yen and the rise in long-term interest rates in Japan are causing concerns about inflation and the government's fiscal policies, leading to increased selling of Japanese government bonds and the yen [2][9]. Group 1: Interest Rates and Currency - Japan's long-term interest rate has risen to 2.100%, with the 10-year government bond yield reaching a new high since July 23, increasing by 0.085% [4]. - The 5-year government bond yield has also risen to 1.535%, marking a 17.5-year high [4]. - The depreciation of the yen is attributed to the belief that the Bank of Japan will not accelerate interest rate hikes, with the yen falling to around 157 yen per dollar [5][7]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Market participants expect the yen to depreciate further, potentially reaching 160 yen per dollar, with predictions of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan not expected until October 2026 [8]. - Concerns are growing that the depreciation of the yen will lead to increased import prices and domestic inflation, with the government’s 2026 budget expected to exceed 120 trillion yen, the highest ever [9]. - The Tokyo stock market has seen a rise, with the Nikkei index surpassing 50,000 points, driven by expectations of improved corporate profits due to yen depreciation [10]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Rising long-term interest rates may suppress personal consumption and corporate investment, potentially impacting economic growth [10]. - The market is reacting to the Bank of Japan's slow response to inflation concerns, with fears that both monetary and fiscal policies are not adequately addressing rising prices [9].