“最好的德国制造”大众汽车，扛不住了

Core Viewpoint - Volkswagen has closed its first domestic factory in Germany, signaling a significant shift in its operational strategy amid declining sales and increasing competition, particularly in the electric vehicle market [4][6][10]. Financial Performance - In Q3, Volkswagen reported revenues of €80.305 billion, a 2.3% increase year-on-year, but faced an operating loss of €1.299 billion, a stark contrast to the operating profit of €2.833 billion in the same period last year, marking a decline of over €4.1 billion [7][8]. - The net loss for the quarter was €1.072 billion, compared to a net profit of €1.558 billion in the previous year, representing a year-on-year decline of approximately 168.8% [7][8]. - For the first three quarters of the year, net profit dropped by 61.5% to €3.4 billion compared to the same period last year [7]. Market Challenges - Volkswagen's sales in North America have been severely impacted by a 25% import tariff, leading to a 9.8% year-on-year decline in Q3 sales, totaling 246,900 vehicles [11][12]. - In Europe, Volkswagen's sales have decreased by 2 million vehicles over the past four years, exacerbated by high energy costs and labor disputes, which have driven up production costs [13]. - The company has set aside €600 million to address potential fines for failing to meet CO2 emissions regulations in Europe, further eroding profits [13]. Strategic Adjustments - Volkswagen has revised its investment plan, reducing the total investment from €180 billion to €160 billion over the next five years due to anticipated near-zero net cash flow in its automotive division by 2025 [10]. - The company plans to launch over 20 new electric vehicle models in China by 2027, aiming to offer around 30 electric models by 2030 [22]. Consumer Sentiment - Volkswagen's sales in China have dropped from a peak of 423,000 vehicles in 2019 to an estimated 290,000 in 2024, a decline of over 30% [15]. - The majority of Volkswagen's sales in China still rely on traditional fuel vehicles, with 95% of sales in the first nine months of the year being fuel cars [15]. - Consumer dissatisfaction with the ID.3 electric model has been noted, with complaints regarding performance and safety issues, indicating a disconnect with current consumer preferences for electric vehicles [16][20][22].