司美格鲁肽减重药迎来口服时代

Core Viewpoint - Novo Nordisk's oral version of the GLP-1 drug semaglutide for weight loss has received FDA approval, marking it as the first oral GLP-1 weight loss medication approved globally, set to launch in early January 2024 [3][4]. Group 1: Product Approval and Market Impact - The approval of the oral semaglutide is expected to significantly increase drug accessibility and demand due to its convenience over injectable forms [3][4]. - Following the announcement, Novo Nordisk's stock rose nearly 10%, while competitor Eli Lilly's stock fell over 1% [3]. - Market analysis predicts that by 2030, oral GLP-1 drugs could capture about 20% of the market share [3]. Group 2: Clinical Efficacy - A 64-week clinical study showed that participants taking 25 mg of oral semaglutide lost an average of 16.6% of their body weight, with over 34.4% achieving a weight loss of 20% or more [4]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide will be marketed under the brand name Wegovy in the U.S., while Eli Lilly's oral weight loss drug orforglipron is expected to receive FDA approval in the first quarter of 2024 [3][4]. - Analysts note that despite Novo Nordisk's lead in the oral weight loss drug market, the company's ability to recover from its current market challenges remains uncertain [4]. Group 4: Market Projections - Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that the oral weight loss drug market could reach approximately $22 billion by 2030, with Eli Lilly's orforglipron expected to capture about 60% of this market share (around $13.6 billion), while Novo Nordisk's oral semaglutide is projected to hold about 21% (around $4 billion) [5].