日元，跌跌跌不休

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has been in a downward trend in the foreign exchange market, with significant depreciation despite the Bank of Japan's recent interest rate hike, indicating a lack of market confidence in the government's policies [3][4][6]. Group 1: Yen Depreciation and Economic Policies - The yen has depreciated significantly, with a 20% drop compared to three years ago, reaching historical lows against major currencies [3][6]. - Following a 25 basis point interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, the yen continued to weaken, suggesting that the market does not view the government's policies favorably [4][6]. - The Bank of Japan's cautious approach to monetary policy, characterized by a gradual increase in rates, has not effectively addressed inflation or stabilized the currency [6][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Investor Sentiment - The increase in loan costs due to the interest rate hike has led to a shift in investment strategies, with some funds moving to the stock market while others are leaving Japan due to concerns over public debt [7][10]. - The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds has reached a 26-year high, indicating a lack of confidence in domestic investments [7][8]. - There is a growing concern among investors regarding Japan's fiscal health, with a significant portion of the population expressing worries about the government's financial management [12][11]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Potential Interventions - Analysts predict that if the yen continues to depreciate, the Bank of Japan may need to reassess its monetary policy to balance between stabilizing the currency and controlling inflation [14][15]. - The Japanese government is expected to face increasing fiscal pressure, with potential interventions in the foreign exchange market if the yen's decline accelerates [14][15]. - Future interest rate hikes are anticipated, with expectations of two more increases, potentially bringing the rate to 1.25% [15].