昔日“牛基”今何在？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of actively managed equity funds in the context of the A-share market, highlighting the emergence of new "bull funds" and the fading glory of past top-performing funds, emphasizing the need for a shift from short-term performance to long-term investment strategies [1][11]. Group 1: Performance of Active Equity Funds - As of December 22, the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by 12.67% in 2024, with an annual increase of 16.87%, indicating a likely two-year consecutive rise in annual K-line [1]. - Nearly 40 actively managed equity funds have doubled their annual returns, with Yongying Technology Smart Selection A achieving approximately 219% annual return, marking it as the first "double fund" since 2008 [1]. - Historical analysis shows that only 5 out of 30 top-performing funds from previous bull markets have maintained strong performance, while 25 have returned to mediocre status [2]. Group 2: Reasons for Declining Performance of Former "Bull Funds" - Many former "bull funds" have lost their luster due to excessive scale growth, which reduces investment flexibility and increases transaction costs, making it harder to achieve excess returns [5][6]. - Over-reliance on a single star fund manager has led to significant performance drops when key personnel leave or fail to adapt to market changes [6]. - Short holding periods and frequent style shifts have hindered many funds from accumulating long-term returns, as they chase short-term trends without a stable investment framework [7]. Group 3: Structural Changes in the Fund Industry - The public fund industry is undergoing a structural transformation, moving from a "star-making" model focused on short-term rankings to a "systematic approach" that emphasizes value investing and stable returns [8][12]. - Successful long-term funds often have stable research teams and strong risk control capabilities, which help them navigate market downturns effectively [8][9]. - Companies are increasingly adopting innovative investment models and enhancing their research capabilities to adapt to market changes, indicating a shift towards a more collaborative and systematic investment approach [9]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Philosophy - The fate of past "bull funds" reflects the evolution of the A-share market and the investment philosophy of the industry, highlighting the importance of a stable investment strategy over reliance on individual fund managers [11]. - Investors are encouraged to focus on funds with clear investment philosophies, stable teams, and proven cross-cycle capabilities, rather than chasing annual performance champions [12].