机构：2026年中国降息降准有空间

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The global macroeconomic environment is showing unexpected resilience amid ongoing tariff uncertainties and continuous technological breakthroughs, with precious metals performing particularly well [2] - COMEX gold has seen a year-to-date increase of 60.84%, while Shanghai Futures Exchange silver has surged by 112.87% [2] - Emerging markets in the Asia-Pacific region are outperforming their European and American counterparts, with significant gains in indices such as the Shenzhen Component Index (up 28.02%) and the MSCI Vietnam Index (up 61.08%) [2] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Major institutions are adopting a cautious approach towards the US stock market due to high valuations, with a shift towards regional diversification [4][5] - The S&P 500's forward P/E ratio is nearing 24, prompting a search for more attractive valuations in emerging markets like China, South Korea, and South Africa [5] - HSBC emphasizes the importance of looking beyond the US for investment opportunities, particularly in Asian markets [5] Group 3: AI Investment Trends - Artificial intelligence (AI) is recognized as a core theme for the global market in 2026, with a shift in focus from hardware to broader ecosystem value creation [8] - AI capital expenditure is expected to exceed $350 billion in 2025 and grow to approximately $500 billion in 2026, with a projected revenue scale of $3.1 trillion by 2030 [8][9] - The integration of AI with health sectors presents significant market potential, particularly in China [9] Group 4: Chinese Economic Policy - Institutions predict that China's macroeconomic policy will continue to focus on fiscal stimulus and coordinated monetary policy, with room for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [11] - The fiscal deficit is expected to provide strong support for stable economic growth, with targeted bond issuance to provide additional funding [11] - The GDP growth target for China in 2026 is anticipated to be set between 4.5% and 5% [12] Group 5: Asset Allocation Strategies - The necessity for diversified asset allocation has increased due to the high correlation between traditional stocks and bonds, with gold and alternative assets becoming key tools for portfolio resilience [14] - Gold is viewed as a critical asset for diversification and is expected to maintain upward momentum due to central bank demand and capital inflows [14] - A "barbell strategy" for A-shares is suggested, focusing on high-tech growth sectors and high-yield quality stocks to capture profit potential while mitigating risks [15]