规模缩水超1700亿元！2025年可转债市场年终盘点

Core Viewpoint - The convertible bond market in 2025 is characterized by a significant "exit wave" driven by both "asset scarcity" and structural trends in the equity market, leading to a contraction in scale and localized surges in activity [1][3]. Group 1: Market Exit Trends - As of December 23, 2025, a total of 173 convertible bonds are expected to exit the market, a substantial increase from 88 in 2024, marking an increase of 85 bonds, nearly doubling the previous year's figure [3][4]. - The exit scale, calculated based on the fundraising amounts at issuance, is projected to reach 320.8 billion yuan in 2025, compared to 110.5 billion yuan in 2024, representing an increase of 210.3 billion yuan, also nearly doubling [3][4]. Group 2: Characteristics of Exits - Among the 173 convertible bonds exiting this year, 134 (77.46%) are doing so through forced redemption, a significant rise from 57.95% in 2024, indicating a trend towards more issuers exercising this option [6]. - The collective exit of bank convertible bonds, including notable ones like the浦发转债 with a 50 billion yuan issuance scale, has become a hallmark of this exit wave [5]. Group 3: Market Scale and Supply-Demand Dynamics - The total number of outstanding convertible bonds has decreased by 116 to 413, with the total market size shrinking by approximately 175.97 billion yuan to around 557.76 billion yuan [8][9]. - The issuance of new convertible bonds has not compensated for the exits, with only 48 new bonds issued in 2025, totaling 63.98 billion yuan, which is insufficient to offset the market contraction [9]. Group 4: Valuation and Investment Strategy - The convertible bond market is experiencing high valuation levels, with a median price exceeding 131 yuan and a median conversion premium over 32%, indicating a market in a "high valuation, low yield" state [12]. - Investors are advised to reduce exposure to high-priced, high-premium equity-type convertible bonds while focusing on those with higher yield-to-maturity and stable underlying stocks, which can provide some protection and opportunities for adjustment [13][14].