欧美银行股年内大涨

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant performance of European and American bank stocks in 2025, with European banks showing a more pronounced recovery compared to their American counterparts, driven by multiple macroeconomic factors and a shift in monetary policy [3][4]. Group 1: European Bank Performance - The STOXX Europe 600 Banks index has risen approximately 65% in 2025, making it one of the best-performing industry indices in Europe [3]. - Analysts suggest that the rise in European bank stocks is more of a structural recovery rather than a typical cyclical rebound, as the sector had been undervalued for a long time [4]. - Major European banks have seen substantial stock price increases, with Deutsche Bank up about 97%, HSBC up approximately 48%, BNP Paribas up around 35%, and UBS up about 30% [4]. Group 2: American Bank Performance - The KBW Bank Index has increased about 31% in 2025, while the S&P 500 Banks Index has risen approximately 32% [3]. - Major U.S. banks like Citigroup have seen stock price increases of about 68%, Goldman Sachs up around 57%, and Morgan Stanley up approximately 43% [8]. - The resilience of U.S. banks is attributed to their diversified business structures, which help mitigate traditional credit cycle fluctuations [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - For 2026, the focus is shifting from "valuation recovery" to "profit verification," with European banks needing to see a real recovery in credit demand and a reduction in geopolitical risks to maintain their momentum [10]. - In the U.S., the market will be closely watching the Federal Reserve's policy direction, with the potential for volatility in bank stocks depending on economic conditions and policy uncertainty [10]. - The bank stock market in 2026 is expected to be more selective, emphasizing the importance of profit quality, risk management, and structural differences across markets [10].