白银突然拉升，突破70美元关口创新高

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in silver prices, highlighting a significant increase in both spot and futures markets, with silver reaching historical highs due to various market dynamics and future demand projections [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 23, spot silver prices rose nearly 2%, surpassing $70 per ounce, marking a new historical high. The main futures contract for silver in Shanghai increased over 3%, reaching 16,978 yuan per kilogram, also setting a new record [1]. - The London silver market reported a closing price of $70.360, reflecting a 1.92% increase from the previous day, with a peak price of $70.491 during the trading session [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - According to the Silver Institute, a structural supply gap of approximately 95 million ounces is expected in the global silver market by 2025, indicating a continued supply-demand imbalance for the fifth consecutive year. Global silver supply is projected to remain stable at around 813 million ounces, with a slight increase in recycled supply [3]. - The demand for silver in the photovoltaic industry is anticipated to be a long-term support factor, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasting an addition of 4,000 gigawatts of solar capacity from 2024 to 2030, which could increase silver demand by nearly 150 million ounces annually, representing a 13% increase from the 1.169 billion ounces of physical demand in 2024 [3]. Group 3: Future Price Projections - Heraeus, a global precious metals refining giant, indicates that silver price increases will primarily depend on investment demand, which is not guaranteed. The price of silver is expected to trade between $43 and $62 per ounce by 2026, influenced by economic and geopolitical risks, U.S. fiscal and monetary policies, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [4]. - Guangfa Futures expresses caution, noting that while macroeconomic fundamentals and monetary policy expectations may support prices, the demand for physical delivery is decreasing as the COMEX silver approaches its final trading day, which could temper bullish sentiment [4].