升破4500美元！国际金价又创新高，还能追吗

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices, highlighting that gold has reached historical highs due to various macroeconomic factors and market sentiments [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The first driving factor is the weakening of the US dollar, which is currently in a rate-cutting cycle, leading to increased depreciation pressure on the dollar and consequently pushing gold prices higher [1]. - The second factor is the persistent expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is anticipated to continue into the next year [1]. - The third factor is the renewed emphasis on gold's anti-inflation and value-preserving properties, as concerns about fiscal imbalances in both the US and Europe have emerged, leading investors to favor gold as a hedge against long-term inflation [1]. - The fourth factor is the heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset due to international geopolitical tensions, coupled with increased purchases of gold by global central banks, further driving up prices [2]. Group 2: Future Price Predictions - The World Gold Council predicts that if the global economy slows and interest rates decline, gold prices may see moderate increases; in the event of a "black swan" event, such as escalating geopolitical conflicts, gold prices could rise by 15%-30% by 2026, potentially exceeding $5,000 [2]. - Goldman Sachs has a more conservative outlook, raising its 2025 gold price target to $4,800, citing the expansion of the US fiscal deficit and declining dollar credibility [2]. - UBS presents the most aggressive forecast, predicting gold prices could reach between $5,000 and $5,500 by 2026, emphasizing gold as the only asset capable of hedging against "de-globalization" risks [2]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - For long-term strategic investors (holding for over 3 years), maintaining a certain allocation to gold is advisable, as it serves as a stabilizing asset in investment portfolios [2]. - For trend traders (holding for less than 3 months), it is suggested to consider selling in increments at high prices to lock in some profits [2]. - New investors are encouraged to adopt a dollar-cost averaging approach instead of making large bets, to avoid the pitfalls of chasing prices [2].