第一财经·2025-12-24 09:14Core Viewpoint - Lithium prices have reached new highs, with carbonate lithium prices continuing to rise, indicating strong demand and cost pressures in the lithium battery supply chain [3][4]. Price Trends - As of December 22, the CIF price of spodumene concentrate (SC6) is between $1,250 and $1,330 per ton, averaging $1,290, which is a nearly 20% increase (17.3%) from two weeks prior [3]. - The spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is between 95,000 and 102,000 yuan per ton, averaging approximately 98,000 yuan, reflecting an 8% increase from two weeks ago [3]. Cost Impact on Phosphate Iron Lithium - A rise of 10,000 yuan per ton in lithium carbonate increases the cost of phosphate iron lithium cathode materials by approximately 2,300 to 2,500 yuan per ton [4]. - The current lithium carbonate prices exceed the tolerable range for downstream material companies, prompting major phosphate iron lithium manufacturers to raise processing fees starting January 2026 [4]. Price Negotiations and Market Dynamics - Domestic phosphate iron lithium manufacturers are engaged in price negotiations with downstream battery cell manufacturers, with the first round of negotiations yet to conclude for many material suppliers [4]. - The recent price increase in phosphate iron lithium is attributed to rising upstream material costs, a recovery in market demand in the second half of the year, and a structural shortage of high-end products [5]. Demand Drivers - The demand for phosphate iron lithium products is significantly increasing, particularly from the energy storage market, driven by technological advancements and supportive policies [5]. - Companies like Hunan Youneng and Wanrun New Energy report strong demand from energy storage and power battery sectors [5]. Competitive Landscape - The phosphate iron lithium industry has faced prolonged low-price competition, leading to some manufacturers accepting lower prices to secure orders from battery factories [6]. - The average price of phosphate iron lithium materials fell from 173,000 yuan per ton at the end of 2022 to 34,000 yuan per ton by August 2025, marking an 80.2% decline [6]. Industry Cost Structure - The China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association has established an average cost range for the industry between 15,714.8 yuan and 16,439.3 yuan per ton, urging member companies to avoid low-price sales that breach cost lines [7]. - The association's recommendations aim to mitigate the adverse effects of irrational competition and ensure sustainable industry development [7]. Future Production Strategies - Phosphate iron lithium companies are adopting a cautious approach to capacity expansion, with many firms indicating a slowdown in production growth due to previous losses [8]. - Companies are focusing on technological innovation and comprehensive strength in the supply chain as key factors for future competitive dynamics [9].