六大行同业存单使用率回落，负债压力缓解能否持续

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the easing of liability pressure on major state-owned banks in China by the end of 2025, particularly through the use of interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) as a key indicator of changes in bank liabilities [3][4]. Group 1: Interbank Certificates of Deposit Overview - As of December 24, 2025, the total balance of interbank CDs for the six major state-owned banks reached 6.85 trillion yuan, with a registration quota utilization rate of 64.3%, significantly lower than the beginning of the year and down over 10 percentage points from the end of 2024 [3][7]. - The total registered quota for interbank CDs across 342 banks is approximately 33 trillion yuan, reflecting a 15.5% increase from 2024, although the number of banks has decreased by 41 [6]. - In 2025, a total of 21,680 interbank CDs were issued, amounting to 33.49 trillion yuan, with city commercial banks being the most active, issuing 11,753 CDs totaling 10.85 trillion yuan [6]. Group 2: Changes in Liability Pressure - The overall utilization rate of interbank CDs for state-owned banks has decreased compared to the previous year, with only Agricultural Bank exceeding 80% utilization at 88.72%, while Postal Savings Bank had the lowest at 12.61% [7][9]. - In 2024, several state-owned banks had to raise their interbank CD quotas to alleviate liability pressure, a situation not observed in 2025 [7][9]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Liability Pressure - The improvement in liability pressure is attributed to multiple factors, including changes in fund flows, a relaxed policy environment, and optimization of banks' liability structures [3][8]. - The shift in residents' asset allocation behavior, with a decline in the attractiveness of traditional time deposits, has led to some funds moving towards capital markets, impacting banks' deposit growth [10]. - The People's Bank of China has increased medium- and long-term liquidity support, which has helped alleviate pressure on banks' liabilities [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The sustainability of the easing liability pressure will depend on three key variables: the direction of capital market funds, the pace of central bank policies, and changes in the interest rate environment [12]. - If the capital market remains active, non-bank deposits may continue to grow, supporting banks' liabilities; however, increased market volatility could reverse this trend [12]. - The central bank's commitment to maintaining a reasonably ample liquidity environment is expected to continue, but policy operations may become more flexible as the economy recovers [12].