原油价格是持续走低，还是突然反转？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the risks of a sudden reversal in the declining trend of oil prices, particularly focusing on the impact of increased production by OPEC+ countries and the resulting reduction in supply capacity [2][4]. Group 1: Current Oil Price Trends - WTI crude oil futures fell below $55 per barrel on December 16, marking a new low not seen in nearly five years, with prices down approximately 20% compared to the end of 2024 [2][5]. - The market is increasingly cautious about the potential for a sudden reversal in weak oil prices due to reduced supply capacity, which has decreased by 30% since the beginning of the year [2][4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - OPEC+ countries, including Saudi Arabia, have increased oil production since April, contributing to the current oversupply situation. The reduction of 2.2 million barrels per day in production was lifted ahead of schedule in September [7]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that the remaining capacity of OPEC+ was approximately 4.1 million barrels per day in November, a 30% decrease from January [7]. Group 3: Future Supply Projections - Projections indicate that by 2026, global oil supply may exceed demand by about 3.5 million barrels per day, surpassing Japan's daily demand of approximately 3 million barrels [4][5]. - Concerns arise that if OPEC+ supply capacity falls below 3 million barrels per day, it could hinder the ability to respond to sudden supply-demand imbalances [9]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Speculation - Speculative funds are increasing short positions on WTI futures, with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reporting a near eight-year high in short positions at 221,464 contracts by the end of November [11]. - If unexpected supply-demand tensions arise, these speculative positions may lead to a rapid price increase as funds are forced to cover their shorts [11].