日股能否突破“预期值天花板”？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Japan's stock market has struggled to break through a PER ceiling of 16 times, with the PER not being a driving factor for market growth historically [2][6][8] - The Nikkei average index reached a historic high of around 50,000 points by the end of 2025, with the focus on whether market expectations can be further improved [2] - Analysts suggest that many individual stocks still have low PERs, and the challenge for 2026 is for companies to improve performance and capital efficiency to stimulate further stock price increases [2] Group 2 - The trading volume of the Tokyo Stock Exchange's Prime section fell below 4 trillion yen, marking a five-month low, while SCREEN Holdings saw a significant stock price increase of 13%, reaching 15,320 yen, with a 57% rise in 2025, outperforming the Nikkei average [4] - Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities raised SCREEN's target stock price from 16,200 yen to 24,400 yen, citing a genuine recovery phase in the front-end equipment market starting from mid-November 2025 [4] - SCREEN has consistently achieved revenue and profit growth since the fiscal year ending March 2022, with ROE increasing from 7.9% in the fiscal year ending March 2021 to 25.1% in the fiscal year ending March 2025 [5] Group 3 - The PER of Japan's stock market has remained between 12 to 16 times since the Lehman crisis, with the current market conditions pushing PER close to the upper limit of this range [6][8] - Despite improvements in ROE, the trend of declining PER continues, indicating that the long-term growth of Japanese companies is not being properly priced in the stock market [8] - To achieve ROE growth and enhance market expectations, companies need to focus on sustainable profitability through sales growth, especially in an inflationary economic environment [9] Group 4 - Japan's PER is approaching levels seen in technology-driven markets like the US, India, and Taiwan, suggesting that it is unlikely for Japan's PER to continue rising in isolation [11] - While inflation may push PER higher, rising interest rates pose a risk, as the yield on newly issued 10-year Japanese government bonds has entered the 2% range, surpassing the Nikkei average dividend yield of 1.8% [11] - The underestimation of growth potential in the Japanese stock market is a long-standing barrier, with investors looking for catalysts such as companies that boldly adjust their business portfolios and focus on growth markets [11]