时隔15月，人民币升破7，三大推手曝光

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent strengthening of the offshore RMB against the USD, highlighting its significance as it broke the psychological barrier of 7.0, reaching a low of 6.99853 for the first time in 2024, with the onshore rate also rising to a new high of 7.0392 [1][4]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - In 2025, the RMB to USD exchange rate exhibited a "first decline, then rise, and fluctuating increase" pattern, starting the year around 7.27 and hitting a low of 7.42879 on April 8 due to the Fed's hawkish stance [2][3]. - A turning point occurred in the second half of the year as expectations of Fed rate cuts grew, leading to a decline in the USD index and a subsequent strengthening of the RMB, which broke the 7.1 mark on September 17 and accelerated its appreciation in December [4][5]. Group 2: Factors Driving RMB Strength - The primary driver of the RMB's recent strength is the weakening trend of the USD index, influenced by rising expectations of Fed rate cuts, which caused the USD index to fall below 100, benefiting non-USD currencies including the RMB [5]. - Seasonal demand for corporate currency settlement has also played a crucial role, as companies typically increase their settlement activities towards year-end, particularly when the RMB is appreciating, creating a cycle of "appreciation-settlement-further appreciation" [6]. - The central bank's liquidity management and expectations guidance have been significant, as it has not suppressed the RMB's appreciation and has adjusted counter-cyclical factors positively, indicating support for the current appreciation trend [7]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Market institutions express cautious optimism regarding the RMB's ability to maintain and effectively break the 7.0 barrier, with many predicting a continued appreciation in 2026 due to the structural weakness of the USD index and favorable economic conditions [8][9]. - Forecasts suggest that the RMB could reach levels between 6.7 and 6.8 by the end of 2026, with some analysts predicting the appreciation trend could extend into 2027, potentially reaching 6.20 to 6.30 [8][9].