白银与原油价格逆转，源自中国2个结构变化

Core Viewpoint - The report by Bank of America's strategist Michael Hartnett highlights a historic reversal in the price ratio of crude oil to silver, marking the first occurrence since 1980, driven by structural changes in China, including accelerated decarbonization and prolonged deflation risks in the domestic economy [2][4][7]. Group 1: Price Ratio and Market Trends - The price ratio of crude oil to silver has been below 1 since December, indicating that silver's price has surpassed that of crude oil for the first time in 44 years [4]. - On December 24, the spot price of silver reached $72 per ounce, a 2.5 times increase compared to the end of 2024, while WTI crude oil prices fell below $55 per barrel, the lowest in nearly five years [4]. - The reversal in prices is seen as a reflection of differing environments for precious metals and crude oil, with silver's price being influenced by speculative inflows linked to gold [5]. Group 2: Structural Changes in China - China is transitioning towards a decarbonized society, with oil demand expected to peak by 2027, as the share of new energy vehicles, including electric vehicles, surpassed 50% in October [7]. - The demand for silver is projected to exceed supply for six consecutive years until 2024, driven by the increasing use of silver in photovoltaic panels [7]. - The domestic economy is experiencing long-term deflation, with the GDP shrinkage index showing negative growth for ten consecutive quarters, and the manufacturing PMI remaining below 50 for eight months [7]. Group 3: Implications for Oil Prices - If China enters a phase of structural deflation, corporate profits may stagnate, leading to reduced oil demand [8]. - Predictions for 2026 suggest a decline in U.S. crude oil prices, with Goldman Sachs forecasting an average price of $52 per barrel, down from $58 [8]. - China's structural changes could impact global markets, with accelerated decarbonization pushing climate action forward, while prolonged deflation may lead to increased cheap exports, posing challenges for competing economies [8].