贵金属的转折点？风浪越大鱼越贵！

Core Viewpoint - The current precious metals market is experiencing significant volatility, with extreme bullish sentiment on one side and sudden bearish movements on the other, indicating a potential turning point for precious metals [5][10]. Short-term Disturbances - Investors should avoid acting as "purchasers" during the upcoming passive fund rebalancing, which is expected to exert selling pressure on silver (9%) and gold (3%) [16][18]. - Active funds are likely to preemptively reduce their holdings to lock in profits, suggesting that the current bullish trend in precious metals may soon end [20][21]. - It is advised to reduce positions in non-ferrous stocks to navigate this turbulent period [22]. Long-term Support for Gold Bull Market - The long-term bullish trend for gold is supported by four key factors: 1. Central banks have been net buyers of gold for three consecutive years, with purchases exceeding 1,000 tons annually, and are projected to reach 1,086 tons in 2024 [31]. 2. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to support gold prices, with three cuts anticipated by 2025 [36][37]. 3. The global debt crisis, particularly in the U.S., has created a demand for safe-haven assets like gold, as debt levels exceed $36 trillion [42][45]. 4. Retail investors currently have a low allocation to gold, with U.S. gold ETFs comprising only 0.17% of private investment portfolios, indicating significant room for growth [49]. Market Trends and Predictions - Historical data shows that gold has consistently outperformed U.S. equities over the past 25 years, with a 20-year return rate of 761% compared to the S&P 500's 673% [64]. - The current gold price has surpassed $4,500, with a total market capitalization of $31.5 trillion, suggesting a strong valuation relative to historical peaks [66]. - Analysts predict that gold could reach $5,000 per ounce by 2026, with some forecasts suggesting a potential rise to $10,000 per ounce by 2029, driven by multiple factors including the Fed's interest rate policies and global de-dollarization [69][72]. Investment Strategy - Short-term strategies should focus on defensive measures, such as reducing positions to avoid passive selling pressure, while long-term strategies should involve buying on dips as market volatility stabilizes [83][88]. - Investors are encouraged to consider gold-related ETFs for a straightforward investment approach that aligns with gold price movements [92].