今天的中国，正在复刻美国“咆哮20年代”

Core Viewpoint - The article draws parallels between the current technological innovations in China and the economic conditions of the United States in the 1920s, suggesting that today's China is experiencing a similar transformative phase marked by rapid technological advancements and potential economic shifts [6][26]. Group 1: Technological Innovations - The article lists various "years of innovation" expected in 2026, including autonomous driving, liquid cooling, domestic HBM, edge AI, solid-state batteries, AI applications, quantum computing, integrated storage and computing chips, brain-like computing, low-altitude economy, commercial aerospace, humanoid robots, silicon photonics, and controlled nuclear fusion [9]. - The rapid emergence of new technologies is seen as a crucial factor that could drive economic recovery and growth, similar to the technological advancements that characterized the roaring twenties in the U.S. [13][19]. Group 2: Economic Conditions and Historical Parallels - The article highlights the economic boom in the U.S. during World War I, where federal spending surged from approximately $700 million in 1916 to a peak of $18.5 billion in 1919, marking a nearly 26-fold increase [8]. - Post-war, the U.S. faced a sharp economic downturn, with federal spending plummeting by 75% in the fiscal year 1920, leading to significant deflation and a collapse in agricultural prices, which mirrors current economic challenges in China [10][12]. - The article emphasizes that the real danger lies not in the downturn itself but in the unsustainable costs built during periods of prosperity, which become burdensome during economic contractions [12][26]. Group 3: Supply-Side Technological Revolution - The article discusses how the technological advancements in the 1920s, particularly the electrification of manufacturing, significantly boosted productivity and transformed industries, akin to the current AI and technological advancements in China [13][15]. - The rise of radio as a revolutionary media technology in the 1920s is highlighted as a key driver of national advertising and consumer culture, drawing a parallel to today's digital marketing and e-commerce trends [16][24]. - The article suggests that the current technological landscape in China, with its focus on supply-side innovations, could lead to similar economic transformations as seen in the U.S. during the roaring twenties [17][19].